BYU’s offense has been successful on 59.5% of its meaningful plays, the best rate in the country through three games according to Outside Zone’s early-season chart.
That number is impressive. It is also begging to be misunderstood.
Success rate does not mean BYU calls the correct play six times out of ten. It does not award style points for LJ Martin running through a safety or Legend Glasker turning one catch into 70 yards. It asks a plainer question: did this play gain enough yardage for its down and distance?
The answer has been yes more often for BYU than for any other offense in the chart. The useful part is not the No. 1 label. It is that the official box scores leave receipts for the same idea: 67 first downs, 19 conversions on 31 third downs and 1,445 yards through three games.
TCU will decide whether that efficiency travels into a less forgiving game.
What 59.5% measures
The common success-rate formula counts a first-down play when it gains at least half the yards needed. A second-down play needs 70% of the remaining distance. Third and fourth down require the line to gain.
A five-yard run on first-and-10 succeeds. A seven-yard completion on second-and-10 succeeds. A six-yard scramble on third-and-7 does not, even if it looks athletic.
That is why the metric offers something total offense cannot. One 70-yard completion and three dead possessions can produce a healthy yards-per-play average. Success rate rewards the offense that repeatedly creates second-and-manageable, then cashes the short conversion.
There is no single official NCAA success-rate leaderboard. Analysts can exclude kneel-downs, garbage time or other plays differently. Outside Zone’s published figure has BYU at 59.5%; BYU On SI’s custom database also ranks the Cougars first after removing its own garbage-time sample. The exact decimal belongs to the provider. The direction is much harder to dispute.
BYU has made normal downs feel easy.
| Official three-game total | BYU |
|---|---|
| Points | 132 |
| First downs | 67 |
| Total yards | 1,445 |
| Rushing yards | 788 |
| Third downs | 19 of 31 |
| Third-down rate | 61.3% |
| Turnovers | 2 |
The third-down number is the bridge between the advanced metric and the official record. A team does not convert 61.3% by living in third-and-12. BYU has usually arrived with the run, the full call sheet and a quarterback who can punish one extra defender near the box.
The offense has two ways to stay ahead
Martin is the obvious first answer. He has run for 384 yards through three games, including 176 at Colorado State, and BYU has 788 rushing yards as a team. The rushing pace is just behind the 2013 school-record offense on a per-game basis.
The less obvious answer is that BYU does not need Martin to win every snap.
Bear Bachmeier has completed 44 of 62 passes for 642 yards. Kyler Kasper and Glasker can stretch a defense vertically. Glasker’s jet action changes the edge count. Journee Tonga gave BYU 91 rushing yards at Colorado State after Martin had already done the loud work.
That menu matters to success rate because defenses cannot solve every short-yardage situation with the same body. Load the box for Martin and Bachmeier can throw. Keep two safeties deep and BYU can hand the ball to a senior back behind the offense’s strongest unit. Chase Glasker across the formation and the front has to communicate before the snap.
The balance shows up across three very different box scores.
BYU converted 9 of 11 third downs against Utah Tech while piling up 521 yards. Arizona held the ball for 33:41 and made BYU work through a genuine conference game, but the Cougars still gained 365 yards and converted 6 of 11 third downs. At Colorado State, BYU averaged 9.6 yards per play and needed only nine third downs all night.
The Arizona game is the important one. BYU trailed 17-14 at halftime and could not hide behind a runaway score. The offense scored two second-half touchdowns while the defense held Arizona to minus-2 rushing yards after the break. That response is a stronger endorsement than anything compiled after Utah Tech fell behind by five touchdowns.
Fifteen red-zone trips reveal the best change
BYU On SI’s drive chart removes kneel-downs and possessions after the game was effectively decided. In that sample, BYU reached the red zone 15 times and scored a touchdown on all 15 trips.
That does not make BYU literally perfect near the goal line. Definitions matter, and official red-zone tables can include a different set of possessions. It does identify the change that could survive even when the success-rate ranking falls.
Last season’s offense could move between the 20s and then lose its margin near the goal line. The field became smaller, Bachmeier’s running space narrowed and one bad down could turn a touchdown drive into a field-goal try. The early 2026 offense has kept its call sheet alive.
Martin can finish through contact. Bachmeier is a designed-run threat. Kasper’s size and Glasker’s motion give Aaron Roderick answers when the defense adds another body to the box. Against Arizona, Bachmeier accounted for all four touchdowns. At Colorado State, Martin scored three times in the first quarter before Preston Rex and Glasker added rushing touchdowns of their own.
That is more important than preserving a national ranking in an unofficial metric. A 52% offense that keeps turning scoring chances into seven points will be more dangerous than a 60% offense that settles for three.
Penalties are the one proven way to break the rhythm
The glossy number comes with an ugly footnote.
BYU On SI counted 24 non-garbage possessions through three games. Nine did not end in touchdowns, and seven of those nine included an offensive penalty. Most were ordinary drive killers: holding, false starts, delay of game and an illegal formation.
BYU has been good enough to survive them. It was called for seven penalties against Arizona and eight at Colorado State. A holding call erased a Tonga touchdown in Fort Collins, and the possession ended with Bachmeier’s first interception of the season.
That sequence is the warning hidden under the efficiency.
Success rate measures the plays that happen. A holding penalty can erase a successful play and replace second-and-short with first-and-20. False starts create failure before the ball moves. The offense’s deepest strength is having run and pass available on the same down; penalties let a defense take one of those answers away.
TCU arrives after demonstrating the same problem from the other side. The Horned Frogs gained 343 yards at UCF but committed 11 penalties and four turnovers in a 21-13 loss. Their 15-play, 50-yard third-quarter possession lasted 9:45 and produced only a field goal. Moving the ball and finishing the drive became two different jobs.
BYU should recognize the trap.
TCU can lose the efficiency count and still win the useful downs
UCF completed 19 of 20 passes against TCU. That sounds like the recipe for an offensive avalanche. It produced 160 passing yards.
The Knights finished with 266 total yards and converted only 3 of 10 third downs. TCU’s defense allowed three scores in four red-zone trips and kept the game within one possession. UCF won because its defense forced four turnovers, its offense accepted short gains and the Knights finished enough of the fields they were given.
That result gives Saturday’s matchup a clean tension.
BYU wants to keep winning ordinary downs until TCU has to choose between Martin and the explosive pass. TCU has already shown it can allow an opponent to complete almost every throw without surrendering a huge yardage total. The Horned Frogs can make patience look productive right up until a drive reaches third down.
Bachmeier cannot chase the 59.5% figure. On third-and-8, a seven-yard completion is a failed play by the metric and on the field. On first-and-10, taking five yards underneath may be exactly right. The value of success rate is that it describes good decisions over time. It becomes useless if the offense starts playing for the description.
The TCU loss at UCF supplied another road map: stop the Horned Frogs’ run game, make Jaden Craig carry the offense and protect the extra possessions. BYU’s offensive half is simpler. Do not volunteer the long-yardage situations that let TCU defend the sticks instead of the whole field.
The ranking can fall while the offense improves
Three games are not a season, and the schedule has helped.
Utah Tech is an FCS opponent. Colorado State entered the BYU game outside the power-conference tier. Arizona is the only Big 12 defense in the sample, and that game included a first half in which the Cougars scored 14 points on four possessions while Arizona controlled the ball.
TCU starts a harder stretch. Iowa State follows in Provo, then Notre Dame. Better fronts will reduce the easy first-down runs. Defensive coordinators will have more film on Glasker’s motion and Bachmeier’s answers. BYU’s success rate should come down.
That would not expose the first three weeks as fake. A national lead in September can be both real and temporary.
The better question is what remains when 59.5 becomes 54 or 51. If BYU keeps third down manageable, keeps both run and pass available, and turns red-zone entries into touchdowns, the offense will still be doing championship-level work. If penalties create long yardage and the red-zone streak breaks, the shiny ranking will not rescue it.
BYU plays TCU Saturday, Oct. 3 at 5 p.m. Mountain on ESPN at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The permanent game center and football schedule carry the current event details. A dedicated watch guide will verify the final access paths inside the 48-hour window.
The Cougars have already proved they can stay ahead of the chains in Provo and against Colorado State. Fort Worth asks for a better receipt: do it when the opponent knows exactly what the number says.
Sources and further reading
- Deseret News: BYU’s success rate leads the nation for Outside Zone’s national ranking, the published success-rate framework and the early-season comparison group.
- BYU On SI: what we learned through three games for its garbage-time exclusions, national efficiency rankings, 24-drive penalty analysis and 15 red-zone touchdown possessions.
- BYU Athletics official box scores: Utah Tech, Arizona and Colorado State for team yards, first downs, third downs, turnovers and individual production.
- BYU Athletics: 41-23 win at Colorado State for the scoring sequence, 9.6 yards per play, Martin and Glasker production, penalties and late rotation context.
- TCU Athletics: 21-13 loss at UCF and the official box score for TCU’s yardage, turnovers, penalties, third-quarter drive and UCF’s efficiency totals.
